ECOWAS and the Strategic Mistake of War on Niger

By Dr. Zanna Hassan Boguma FCIPDM
(Zanna Boguma of Borno)
10th August 2023

“It’s not the armies that are evil, it’s wars and people who start them”.

It has become apparent that Nigeria is at the moment under a lot of pressure from the United States and the United Nations to intervene in the political crisis in the Republic of Niger. Both the United States’ Vice President, Kamala Harris and UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, have expressed their support for Nigeria’s efforts toward the restoration of constitutional order in the Niger.

As soon as the news of the coup in Niger broke out, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu the current Chairman of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), rejected outrightly the threat to democracy in Niger and called on the Nigerien Coup plotters to release President Bazoum who was in captivity and restore him back to power. Though it was commendable for Mr. President to make a statement on the matter and for sending a strong delegation of the ECOWAS to talk the leaders of the coup in order to restore a constitutional order in the country and to secure the release of the President, the threat of war whose consequences is strategically dangerous shouldn’t have been a better option in a region as volatile Niger whose borders and proximity to the seven states in Nigeria would be very disastrous and catastrophic.

The African Union’s 15-day ultimatum to the leaders of the coup to return to the barracks and restore constitutional authority in the Niger is in order, but the swift reaction by the coup plotters against any foreign interference in their country should be treaded with a lot of caution and with diplomacy. The AU as a regional body would have exhausted all diplomatic means without a threat of war as the problem is a political one.

Similarly, the Nigerian intervention in the Gambia alongside other West African States in forcing President Yahya Jammeh out of office in 2017 and his subsequent replacement of Aadama Baaro as the democratically elected President of the Gambia shouldn’t be taken as a guarantee to the Niger scenario.

In the case of the Gambia, the country is a very small country of about 11, 300 square kilometers, with a population of about 2.6 million people as against Niger which covers over 1.26 million square kilometers. Although Niger has a population of about 22 million, it is larger than Nigeria in size and with a very difficult terrain to traverse.

In terms of commonalities, both Nigeria and Niger have one thing in common, the unfortunate “paradox of poverty in the midst of plenty.” Although the two next-door neighbours were blessed with abundant natural resources, they however have a very high rate multi dimensional poverty. While in Nigeria, 133 million people are multi- dimensionally poor according to statistics provided by the National Bureau of Statistics, about 10 million people in Niger, nearly half of the 22 million population are poor.

Besides, the Sahelian Region of Africa which Niger is located, it has a history of all kinds of calamities which includes armed conflicts and droughts. Nigeria too has it’s own crisis of Boko Haram, Banditry, Separatist problem of IPOB, Kidnappings, endemic corruption, institutional decay and entrenched/endemic poverty.

For these and many other reason, Nigeria should exercise a lot of caution in it’s dangerous adventure of intervening in the current standoff in Niger regardless of the international pressure. However, any irrational or contrary action will be suicidal as well as costly especially, for the Nigerian side.

Strategically and politically speaking, our President should be mindful of the fact that he is dealing with a sovereign country, just like Nigeria, the United States and every other country of the world. Niger gained it’s independence from France in August 3, 1960 two months earlier than October 1, 1960 when Nigeria gained it’s independence from Britain. Hence, any action that Nigeria or by extension ECOWAS should take in Niger must respect the sovereignty of that country and should be geared towards resolving the conflict in the best interest of all.

Of importance and consideration is the proximity of Niger to Nigeria. Any escalation of the conflict beyond political and diplomatic rhetorics could be very detrimental to Nigeria.

Unlike Gambia, which is very far-away from Nigeria; Niger and Nigeria shares a border of about 1,608 kilometres. Seven states of Northern Nigeria shares land borders with the Niger Republic, the states that shares borders with Niger are Borno, Jigawa, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Yobe and Zamfara states. Although most of the communities bordering Nigeria and Niger were bedeviled by all kinds of insecurity, any outbreak of hostilities between the two countries may be very catastrophic, especially for Nigeria.

Of equal importance and concern is the Nigerian military’s overwhelming internal security operations. Any misadventure of aggression against Niger will amount to Nigeria committing catastrophic suicide with a lots of consequences. Nigeria, with a total debt of about N46.25 trillion, according to the Debt Management Office and an ongoing counter insurgency operations in the northeast, operations against banditry and kidnapping in the northwest and central and a containment of a sescetionist agenda in the eastern region, how and where will it get the money to fund a war at this time of it’s transition?

Besides this, the possibility of a looming conflict between the two West African neighbours if care is not taken will snowball into a regional or global conflict.

Nigeria fought only one civil war since independence with participations in many peace keeping operations while Niger on the other hand is a veteran of many armed conflicts both internally and externally.

Niger too contended itself with several domestic conflicts, such as the Taureg rebellion in Mali and Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. Both of these conflicts had spilled into Niger from the countries where they were originally orchestrated. Presently too, the French troops that were forced to withdraw from Mali in August after the Malian coup found a new home in Niger.

Another serious challenge to contend with was the support by the military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, two french speaking West African countries; Algeria and the Gambia all throwing their weight behind Niger in it’s constitutional crisis and against the face of the threat of use power of against Niger by ECOWAS.

At this juncture and with modesty, my advise to our President is not to allow any country, no matter how powerful, to push Nigeria into any form of confrontation with it’s neighbours. We expect Mr President to adopt a conciliatory approach in handling the delicate situation in that country. The war in Sudan is still raging with an untold destruction and humanitarian catastrophe. Therefore, no part of Africa should be allowed to be another battleground for the European imperialists and for Western hegemonic neocolonialism. The fact that US, France and Russia has an interest in our region’s resources and with the fear by both US and France of an increasing influence of China and Russia in Africa; and of the new Nigerien military leadership’s favouring cooperation with Russia and China like it’s other counterparts in Mali and Guinea.

Let’s our President and members of the ECOWAS understand that, every country has the capacity to reconcile its internal crisis. We also as a sovereign nation are battling with our own internal problems. It is foolhardy for the Western and European countries to dictate to us on our African problem. The US, France and Russia too have their own internal problems, the growing spate of mass shootings, contending with drugs and other crimes in the US, the Russian-Ukraine war and the rising trends in criminalities in France is enough for them to contend with.

It is laughable and utterly preposterous for the US Vice President, Kamala Harris to beckon on our President to delve into the current democratic and constitutional crisis in Niger. Kamala Haris shunned Nigeria during her official tour of Africa in April this year. Why then should US use different rehtorics in dealing with Africa’s problem if not for it’s gluttonous interests?

Conclusively, our dear President should tread carefully in dealing with the situation in Niger. It is not only military coups that gave rise to dictatorships. Repressive and corrupt leadership, failures in good governance, inequality and inequity in resource distributions, political imbalances etc were the major causes of unrest in Africa.

One very important reason to deescalate the crisis is that, Niger is currently hosting hundreds of thousands of our Nigerian citizens as refugees in their provinces the fate of whom one can imagine if war eventually breaks out. Besides, in both sides of the isles, are people whose social and cultural interconnectivity is beyond human conception though devided by colonial boundaries. Therefore, these sociocultural commonalities and linkages should be respected before any decision is made on the matter.

The position taken by our Distinguished Senators, the Northern Elders Forum and indeed all well meaning Nigerians should also be respected.

Here in Africa, Nigeria inclusive, we have seen elected “democratic” governments that ended up being as dictatorial as the military regimes. Alterations in constitution to allow tenure elongation, democracies turning into hereditary for a perpetual control of power by ailing leaders etc should be seen as the problem.

Finally, de-escalation of the conflict by the withdrawal of military build ups on our borders, resumption of a diplomatic dialogue for the release of the former President Bazoum and a peaceful transitional return to civilian government is the only way out of the crisis in Niger and not war rhetorics. My views only