Implications and possible impact of the power struggle to conflicts in Sudan: The need for prayers

By Dr. Zanna Hassan Boguma FCIPDM

(Zanna Boguma of Borno)

27th April 2023

Sudan was plunged into chaos after a brutal power struggle between its regular military and a powerful paramilitary broke out on April 15, 2023. The two forces are led by two generals who were former allies in overthrowing the country’s last government.

The conflict is raging between the country’s military, led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and a paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), under the command of Mohamed Hamdan Daglo. The fighting has been concentrated in the capital city of Khartoum and the Darfur region.

The fighting is between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF. The SAF is the regular army of Sudan, while the RSF is a paramilitary force that was created by the former leader Omar al-Bashir.

The fighting is the result of a power struggle between the SAF and the RSF. The SAF wants to maintain its control over the government, while the RSF wants to increase its power and influence.

What are the consequences?

The fighting has caused a humanitarian crisis in Sudan. Thousands of people have been displaced from their homes, and there are reports of widespread looting and violence. The fighting has also disrupted the country’s economy and has made it difficult to provide basic services to the population.

The conflict should be a source of concerns for regional states and world powers?

The conflict in Sudan must have rattled neighboring countries and worrying the United States and others for reasons ranging from concern about shared Nile waters and oil pipelines to the shape of a new government and a new humanitarian crisis in the making.

Especially, State like Egypt is more concerned about the conflict because of the potential impact on the Nile River. Egypt relies on the Nile for water, and the conflict could disrupt the flow of water or lead to pollution.

While Libya is concerned about the conflict in Sudan because of the potential for instability to spill over the border. Libya is already struggling with its own political and security challenges, and the conflict in Sudan could make the situation worse.

Chad also faces certain threats because of a potential spill over of the conflict across the border especially of displaced persons and other humanitarian crisis. The SAF and RSF are powerful forces, with a history of violence.

South Sudan

South Sudan is most concerned about the conflict because of the potential impact on oil exports. South Sudan relies on oil exports for revenue, and the conflict in Sudan could disrupt oil production or exports.

And in Ethiopia the concern is about the potential impact on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD is a controversial dam that is being built on the Blue Nile River. The conflict in Sudan could disrupt the construction of the dam or lead to water shortages downstream.

International Powers

On the international scale, Russia:s  interest in expanding its influence in Sudan is a key indicator for escalation of the conflict. Russia has a history of supporting authoritarian rulers in the region and it could provide military or financial assistance to the warring factions.

The United States is also concerned about the conflict because of it’s potential for instability to spread. The United States also has a history of supporting Sudanese governments.

Thus, the conflict in Sudan is a complex and challenging situation that requires an urgent attention. The international community needs to work together to find a peaceful solution to the conflict.

Gulf Arab States

The Gulf states too, have a lot of interest to protect in the Sudan. Wealthy oil producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long sought to shape events in Sudan, seeing the transition from Bashir’s rule as a way to roll back influence and stabilize the region.

Investors from both countries have deals to invest in a range of projects from agricultural projects, where Sudan holds vast potential based on large irrigated areas, to an airline and strategic ports on its Red Sea coast.

What does the future look like in Sudan?

The future of Sudan is uncertain. The fighting has created a political vacuum and has made it difficult to address the country’s many challenges, such as poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity. The international community will need to continue to support Sudan and help the country to find a peaceful solution to its current crisis.

The implications for Chad, Niger and Nigeria

Beside the above listed implications and impact of the conflict, the Lake Chad Basin region is already a volatile area of conflict as a result of the over a decade Boko Haram insurgency which has already devastated communities in the region. The humanitarian crisis and post insurgency recovery is still going on with a lot of challenges.

The presence of ISWAP and Boko Haram fighters is a source of concern seeing the possibility of the influx of displaced persons to the region and the opportunities for obtaining weapons to continue the insurgency.

Nigeria, especially the States of the Northern Nigeria has a substantial population in Sudan and if the conflict is not stopped early, may cause a lot of refugee spill over which add to our already tensed situations.

In view of this, I am calling on our President, the Governors of the LCBC sphere of influence to quickly respond to the impending crisis. Ours is to be on red alert and face the potential problems head-on.

Equally, there is a need for their Royal Highnesses, our Traditional Rulers, Ulama and citizens to intensify prayers for the quick resolution of the conflict and for our region to be safe from the impending spill over of the crisis. Keeping in mind the adage “when you see the head of a person being shaved without water, quickly soak yours with water before your turn”

May Allah Ta’ala bring a lasting peace between the two warring factions and resolve the conflict as early as possible. May we be protected from facing another calamity and secure our region from being a receptor of whatever problem that crisis may bring.